Welcome! Our goal at Winds of Change.NET is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. In addition, we also have our in-depth Iraq Report today.
Today's Winds of War briefing is brought to you by Bill Roggio of the fourth rail and evariste of Discarded Lies.
Top Topics
- Russia and Iran signed a deal for Russia to provide nuclear fuel for the Bushehr reactor and collect the spent fuel, over US objections. Iran may start receiving fuel as soon as two months from now.
- Canada drops out of the North American Nuclear Missile Defense program. North Korea is developing a bigger, more accurate Scud missile that can be launched from anywhere in North Korea to assault the South. More ominously for us, missile tests of the Taepodong-II, which has already had a successful engine test and which can reach the US mainland, are next. Meanwhile, Canada insists there is no problem and we're only being provocative by developing missile defense. The Navy conducted another successful test of its AEGIS Theater Missile Defense missile system, from the usually missile defense skeptics at DefenseTech.
- China is building a brand-new deep-sea port in Pakistan, and has extracted "sovereign guarantees" over the facility from Musharraf. The Pakistani and Chinese navies conducted their first-ever naval exercises this October.
Other Topics Today Include:
Iran is the greatest threat to peace; Iran to Europe: you can trust us to stay three months away from a nuclear weapon; Iran denies custody of bin Laden; Iran nuke threat has been fermenting for 20 years; terrorist recidivism shocka; Syria redeploying to Bekaa murmurs; Hezbollah, not IJ, behind latest suicide bombing; Trident submarines join the GWOT; more tidbits on brutal MS-13 gang; sting nabs 2 La. individuals untroubled by selling fake IDs to Abu Sayyaf; MANPAD attacks on airliners?; missing fuel rods found in Cali; cosmic rays detect nukes through shielding; smuggling tunnel from Mexico to US found; India a preeminent power within 15 years; China antisecession law brings repercussions; US ads in Pakistan may be paying off; Nepal blockade over-for now; NK wants six way talks resumption, has scary missiles in the pipeline; US to sell India arms; a look at the Philippines; Euros love wiretapping; Italian troubles and UK successes in combating terror; dumb IRA moves and tone-deafness; Jordanian Australian in chokey in Lebanon; Arab Bank ordered to cease wire transfers; Zarqawi's inner circle shrinking; CIA recruiting at Guantanamo; Dutch upping Afghan commitment; Planespotters hurt CIA secrecy; maritime terrorism and more...
IRAN REPORTS
- The Counterterrorism Blog links to Matthew Levitt’s Congressional testimony stating that Iran is the greatest threat to peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as well as outlining Iranian ties and sponsorship to global terrorism.
- Iran is urging European nations to accept a deal that would allow it to maintain a fuel cycle similar to the German/Japanese model, which means that Iran would be three months away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon.
- Diplomats familiar with IAEA deliberations say Iran has had the know-how to create nuclear weapons since the late 1980s after systematically seeking it. AQ Khan made Iran an offer 18 years ago; Iran declined but used the items on offer as a buying guide to obtain them elsewhere.
- An Iranian man who is a British national was arrested by Polish authorities at the behest of US authorities for helping Iran by exporting sensitive technology without obtaining the proper licenses. He's previously served 6 months in the UK for the same crime; apparently the slap on the wrist didn't work.
THE MIDDLE EAST
- A freed terrorist rearrested for terrorist activities? Say it ain't so.
- Syria is going to try and fob the world off by redeploying all its troops to the Bekaa Valley (on the eastern border of Lebanon).
- Palestinian sources say Hezbollah was behind the latest suicide bombing in Israel. Or maybe it was Islamic Jihad (the Syria office took credit; the Palestine branch denied it). Either way, Israel says it was Iran and Syria.
THE AMERICAS
- Four Trident submarines are being converted for use in the War on Terror. Their normal role is as nuclear ballistic missile platforms; now they'll be guided missile platforms plus four of the subs' 24 missile tubes will be reconfigured to support Navy SEALs and launch weapons and vehicles cheaply from Stealthy Affordable Capsule System modules. Interesting stuff.
- The leader of the Honduran criminal gang MS-13 has been arrested numerous times in California before being apprehended in Texas. El Salvadoran gangsters, US analysts and Latin American officials all seem to agree: there's no evidence and no inclination for Central American gangs to link up to Al Qaeda. Go back to sleep.
- In what may be a sign of things to come, the legislature of Virginia, which is far from a border state, is seeking to curtail illegal immigrant use of taxpayer-funded public benefits.
- North Korea seized the USS Pueblo in 1968. Now a Republican Senator from Colorado has introduced a resolution demanding its return.
AFRICA
- A government ammo dump blew up in Sudan. Shame. It was only a day away from retirement.
ASIA & AUSTRALIA
- Nepal's Maoist rebels called off a two-weeks-old transportation blockade and threatened to follow up with a nationwide general strike if King Gyanendra did not reverse his suspension of democratic government.
- Belmont Club reports on the political limitations of fighting Islamic terrorists in the Philippines. Overstretched Philippine forces have declared a truce with Jolo muslim rebels in order to focus on fighting Abu Sayyaf.
- As China prepares to pass an "anti-secession" law that is essentially a license to wage war on Taiwan, the United States is responding in several ways: lobbying Europe not to lift an arms sanction on Beijing, including concerns over Taiwan in a joint strategy with Japan to counter Chinese might, and rumblings on Capitol Hill of a law demanding the resumption of formal ties with Taiwan in retaliation if China passes the law.
EUROPE
THE GLOBAL WAR
- US authorities ordered the Arab Bank to stop conducting wire transfers because it helps move money to the families of suicide bombers.
We like to end on a lighter note:
- Looking on the bright side, Fred Durst says the dissemination of his stolen sex video on the internet will "cause awareness for Homeland Security".
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Re: China and Taiwan. This is so screwed up. All it would take to satisfy China on this score is a slight tweak to the status quo -- Taiwan pretends to be part of China and stops with the seperatist rhetoric, but keeps its de facto independence. Nothing important would change, but it would defuse a tense situation and free up attention for more important problems like North Korea. The US agreement to protect Taiwan is a leftover relic of the Cold War that only sends misleading signals to Taiwan's leadership. Does anybody seriously believe that the US would make any kind of sacrifice if Taiwan got too cocky and provoked the Chinese into a war? Anyone wanna take any bets on that? I sure wouldn't. Too bad so sad for Taiwan.
Bush needs to make it absolutely clear to the Taiwanese that the situation has changed and they cannot count on unconditional support from the US. The Taiwan thing is the most major bone of contention between the US and China; once that goes away, whole new pathways for greater strategic co-operation open up. But right now I get the impression that the Bush administration is confused and split over China; there are some hawks that are still stuck in the Cold War Time Warp and don't seem to have noticed that China is one of the US' largest trading partners and that there's no good reason to antagonize eachother.
All this fretting over China's rise is stupid and counterproductive, and only distracts from the more important things. The brouhaha over the arms embargo is a perfect case in point. Who gives a shit if the EU sells them weapons? Where is the Bush admin actually going with all this crap? Why do they want to engage in a futile exercise which is only going to alienate the Chinese to no percieveable gain for the US? What is the goal they're trying to accomplish here? My guess is that even they don't have a clue and are just guided by this vague sentiment of "China big, China commies, China baaaad". That has to disappear if US policy in Asia is ever going to make any sense.
Matt, Matt, Matt...
Your solution is just that simple?
I would suggest that it is not at all.
Not in principle: Supporting democracies and opposing dictatorships.
Not in reality: A change in words will stop China's desire for sull ownership of the island's resources and people.
Take a look around. All of this 'fretting over China's rise' is not a collective equivalent to Chicken Little. China owns and operates the world's largest container sea port.....in the Bahamas. China controls both the eastern and western entrances to the Panama Canal. China 'acquired' our most advanced nuclear designs: The W-88 miniaturized MIRV warhead specs & plans. I could go on, but will not.
At the end of the day, in reality what you are suggesting is that the 12+ Million free Taiwanese citizens are expendable and their freedom too inconvenient to support.
If you think I am over-reacting and that your idea of just changing a few words around will make it all just go away...well, then I would suggest that you speak to a few people from Hong Kong and ask them how changing a few words effects them. Ask them precisely 'what' just goes away.
One Country, Two Systems is an illusion for the intellectually lazy who cannot be inconvenienced with so much more 'important' things at hand.
The situation IS inconvenient, that I will grant. There ARE other important tasks at hand, as well.
But if we were to take the stand that other things are TOO important, that some things are just TOO inconvenient, do you really believe that the Lebanese in Beruit on this wonderful day would have ever had the courage to stand for their own freedom? That their Syrian-puppet government would have ever willingly folded without a shot?
People want to be FREE. Their freedom is inconvenient at our (and their) peril.
On this day, may God bless the courageous people of Lebanon...inspired and strengthened by the actions of America, Britain, Australia, Italy and, most directly, the newly freed Iraqi Voters.
May there be a worldwide run on the Purple Ink market!
On the Middle East section of today's WoW:
I noted and posted late Sunday night:
Triangulation of Fire: Syria in the Crosshairs
Before the Tens of Thousands took to the streets in Beruit precipitating...
The Entire Syrian-Puppet Lebanese Gov't Walking Away
It's also worthy of noting a trio of events that occured in/regarding Pakistan on a single day last week:
A Concert of Troubling Developments in Pakistan
I'm not attempting a shameless plug of my won blog, though it appears as such. I simply think both the Syrian and Pakistani developments are properly (though in no way competely) framed by the events mentioned in the posts, regardless of my ability to articulate them.
Bill & envariste: The Iran & Americas sections are especially good and on the money this week. Great job. Thanks again for all the time to put all this in one clean reference point.
Bill, Envariste...
Check this out RE: Canada's non-participation
Canada Informed That Decision Not to Participate in U.S. System Would Result in Lack of Protection
Why, yes Virginia...there IS a Santa Claus.
He just doesn't live in Washington, DC or NORAD.