Zdravstvuite Russia! 2004-09-14

by Joel Gaines at September 14, 2004 6:22 AM

Winds of Change.NET Regional Briefings run on Tuesdays & Wednesdays, and sometimes Fridays too.

This Regional Briefing focuses on the enigma that is Russia, via Joel Gaines of No Pundit Intended. Joel is a veteran of the Gulf War with the 3rd Armor Division, where he worked in an intelligence capacity. He speaks Russian, and has worked in several of the former soviet satellites.

TOP TOPIC:

  • In North Ossetia, Beslan School #1 was the target of a brutal and senseless act of terror. Islamo-fascists from the Chechen region, augmented by terrorists from Ingushetia held more than 1200 in a state of siege in the school's gymnasium. The siege ended when one of the improvised explosive devices detonated - killing and wounding hundreds.
  • The attack was a severe blow to Russia's attempts to stay above the fray, known as the War on Terror, which impacts so many other nations. The Chechen separatist leaders, Aslan Maskhadov and Shamil Basayev, have been implicated by the FSB as having a direct involvement in the attack.

Other Topics Today Include: Three economic growth scenarios, YUKOS woe deepens, Putin's controlled democracy, Russia's dismay about Chechen attacks,Alu Alkhinov is new Chechen president, US/Russia relations hurt?, Georgia and S. Ossetia still at it, assassinated with a BB, Introducing the T-90 tank, terrorists targeting nuke sites.

Multiple Terrorist Attacks

  • Two Russian Airliners Crash: Russian investigators confirmed there was explosives residue among the wreckage of two Russian airliners that had crashed almost simultaneously. The planes were reportedly brought down by female suicide terrorists of the "Islambouli Brigades". In all, 90 passengers and crew were killed. The terrorists, Nagayeva, 30, and Dzhebirkhanova, 37, purchased tickets just before the plane began to board. They were roommates in Grozny and apparently worked together.
  • Moscow Subway Attack: A female suicide terrorist, attempting to enter a crowded Moscow metro station, detonated the explosives she had strapped to her body in order to avoid capture by two policemen checking bags. There were 51 people wounded and 9 people killed. The terrorist was also killed.

Russia's Economy

  • Russia's Ministry of Economic Development and Trade has developed three growth scenarios for Russia for 2005. The two most interesting items are the reliance on oil for growth and the discovery that economic growth is expected to be nearly 30% by 2007.
  • YUKOS woe deepens as the tax penalties have increased to more than $7B. Mikhail Khodorovsky, who owns one third of the oil conglomerate has said he would give up his entire interest in YUKOS to save the company, but he does not have the personal funds to bail the company out. Khodorovsky himself faces charges of fraud and tax evasion, although many believe his legal problems are punishment by Putin for Khodorovsky's political opposition to the Russian president. As the YUKOS drama continues, some speculate the effect on the world-wide oil market is significant enough to warrant claims of Putin using YUKOS further to flex newly found economic muscles.

Internal Politics

  • President Putin has vowed to take the fight against terrorism anywhere in the world, sounding a great deal like President Bush after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. At the same time, Putin is likely to make further changes to centralize power within, in his words, the "controlled democracy" of Russia. An example is the Kremlins wish to end constituency voting in Russia, which would essentially remove independent members from the Duma.
  • Joe Gandelman of The Moderate Voice has more analysis covering these developments. He's highly critical of Putin's moves, and points to examples in Spain and India to illustrate the different possibilities.

Chechnya

  • The Duma has heard from experts over the past few years about the importance of recognizing Wahhabism as a threat to security and stability in Chechnya. Yet, we find Islamofascism prevalent in several areas of the former Soviet Union. From all accounts, the Russian governement is shocked by the attack in Beslan, the downing of two Russian airliners, and an attack on Moscow's subway system, despite the fact that Russia has been waging war in Chechnya for several years. It is difficult to understand Russia suffering the same apathy with which the United States viewed terrorism prior to September 11, 2001. Did Russia believe they had successfully disowned the Afghan war waged by the Soviet Union? Did Russia believe their stance against invading Iraq was further insulation from being targetted by terrorists? Did President Putin believe he had successfully turned the "Chechen problem" into a political, rather than military, conflict? Or did Russia just suffer from the institutional sloppiness, which was part and parcel of government during the Soviet era?
  • Alu Alkhanov, favored by the Kremlin, won the Chechen presidential race handily with 74% of the vote. He replaces Kremlin favored Akhmad Kadyrov, who was killed in a bomb attack last May.

International Relations & Security

  • Georgian troops and South Ossetian separatists have continued to trade fire, while Russia has increased the number of peacekeepers in the region. Each side has blamed the other for violating a short-lived cease fire. South Ossetia declared independence from Georgia in 1992. However, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has vowed to return the region to Georgian rule.

Paging Mr. Bond...

  • September 7, 1978 - Georgi Ivanov Markov, A Bulgarian dissident who worked for the BBC World Service, was waiting at a bus stop when he was jabbed in the leg by a man holding an umbrella. The man apologised and walked away. Markov became ill and died on September 11. After his death, doctors found a 4mm diameter BB, which had been filled with ricin, embedded in his calf. He had been assassinated by the KGB, at the request of the Bulgarian government, because if his critical remarks about the Bulgarian government.
  • Terrorists are targeting unsecure nuclear stockpiles in Russia. There have been several cases of terrorists or agents representing them attempting to obtain nuclear material in the past few years. Under a US/Russia agreement, US inspectors have been touring Russian nuclear sites - see what they are finding!

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